[KLUG Advocacy] Re: Cringley's predictions for 2003

[Bryan J. Smith]

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On Thu, 2003-01-02 at 21:18, Bruce Smith wrote:
> http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20030102.html
> I sure hope he's right about #9!!!
> #10 is a no-brainer.  I personally doubt #7 will happen.

Er, regarding #7, that Apple won't release until 2004, or not at all?
If the latter, I hope you know the details of those processors.

> I also hope he's wrong about HP & Sun.  I hate to see that happen to any
> computer company (except maybe M$) but I'm not going to bet against Bob.

#1 is PC gone bad.  Get a woman in there that _knows_ what she is doing,
not a not-so-good engineer lusting for HP's glory days.  They're gone.

#2 is predictable.  Hey Dude, the interns are even more stupid!  Bring
back Dell Dude Steve!

I personally love #3.  The verdict is still out on Microsoft, but at
least they _are_ addressing security.  The problem is they are still
doing it "post-release," and not changing their _application_ developers
(I'd need about 5 minutes for "bitch slapping" each developer).  I
predict the same "compatibility coup" will occur in 2004 and result in
an NT 6.0 in 2006 that is everything _far_short_ of promised, just like
back in 1994 that was supposed to be NT 4.0 in 1996 which never came to
be as promised.  "Cairo" anyone?

He's totally on-the-mark on #4.  It was with a semi-conductor startup
from 1999-2001.  We started dual-booting all NT workstations as a result
and starting looking at 2-4-way Lintel to replace 2-8-way Sun.

Regarding #5, I didn't know AMD became a MIPS licensee.  Did they do
this recently?  Long ago?  Buy someone else out?  Makes sense if they
did.  MIPS is an open architecture -- heck, _all_ firms were looking at
standardizing on MIPS back in the late '80s (which led to the other RISC
developments, Alpha, PowerPC, etc... -- everyone but SPARC, which was
the other, original RISC).

#6 is saving Microsoft's butt.  They aren't going to get the world to
convert to IA-64 without major ISV support, and just like with NT for
its first 8 years, they ain't getting it.  Intel has already licensed
AMD x86-64, and the "Yamhill" chip is rumored.  Intel keeps saying IA-32
will "live on" for a few more years, but the latest AMD Hammer SPEC
ratings pretty much best the P4 even at 1/3rd the speed (which is not
release).  But AMD still has to ship, and I've heard the packing issues
are still nagging them (as always).

#7 I covered above.

#8 is oh-so-true.

#9 sounds true, at least I hope.

#10 was an interesting viewpoint, but I think Cringely, like many
others, _forget_ that most viruses come from outside the US anyway.  So
it's not about profit, but chaos.

#11 yep.

#12 sounds like a damn good idea to fight the RIAA/MPAA.

#13 is true.  802.11a on 5GHz just doesn't have world-wide support.=20
802.11g runs over the same, globally universal 2.4GHz band like
802.11b.  Less headaches overall.

#14 will happen for sure.  I'm surprised it hasn't yet with Windows
desktops ruling the landscape.

#15 sounds like a new profit model for Google!  Good one (and probably
will come true!).


--=20
Bryan J. Smith, E.I. (BSECE)       Contact Info:  http://thebs.org
[ http://thebs.org/files/resume/BryanJonSmith_certifications.pdf ]
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* A lecture on software piracy from Bill Gates is like a lecture *
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